Tuesday, November 21, 2006

unsolicited baseball opinions

signing alfonso soriano for 17 million per is ridiculous. offering him 8 years when nobody else would probably offer him seven and so ensuring that he’ll be on the payroll as a 38 year old arthritic man is re-damn-diculous. i have heard many rational explanations why this is a horrible signing and a few irrational cub fans argue in support.

the best argument i’ve heard against the Soriano signing is from espn insider’s keith law who opened his most recent article with:

“The team that finished last in the National League in OBP in 2006 (and, not coincidentally, second-to-last in runs scored) with a .319 team mark just signed a left fielder with a .320 career OBP and a .337 OBP in 2006 (both figures exclude intentional walks) to replace a guy with a .365 OBP in 2006. And they're paying $17 million per year for the privilege -- until the new player turns 38.

I'm sure this will work out swimmingly.”

the best argument i’ve heard for the Soriano signing is…, um, likely to be muttered by some frat boy in naperville after he’s had six bucks worth of old style.*

the mets just
declined to exercise their $14 mil option on tom glavine for 2007 and, due to the current state of their starting rotation and the cost of starting pitching, i’m fairly certain minaya will look back on this decision as a mistake.

go back and read that latter assertion again. i’m afraid it pretty much summarizes the 2006-2007 hot stove season.

the miserly middle-class cardinals and their faithful middle-class fans debated whether jock should pick up jim edmonds’ $10 mil, 2007 option for the better part of two months. then, when the cardinals re-signed “jed” to a 2 year, $18 mil deal most of us considered it excessive. now the reports that the dodgers are signing juan pierre to a
5 yr/45 mil contract have us dancing in the streets.

did i mention that jim hendry is trying to shore up his outfield defense with
cliff floyd and is attempting to sign julio lugo

when he already has de rosa at second and izturis at short? something tells me hendry is screaming at his subordinates to get julio franco on the phone and gammons and rosenthal are reconsidering their measured support of the soriano move.

doling out 51.1 million just to negotiate with scott boras for daisuke matsuzaka seemed absolutely absurd until i realized that the cubs could have signed “d-mat” and probably a second tier starter like ted lilly for the same money they spent on sori.

ladies and gentlemen, i present to you the cubs' brand-new #2 starter:

after the jed re-up and
the signing of our super-sub
jocketty and the cardinal’s camp has been strangely quiet. there are moments when i fear that this silence is evidence of ownership’s reticence to spend serious cash on off-season acquisitions. but, as often as not, i realize that jock is to michael as hendry is to sonny and both haugen and purpura are slick but inconsequential.

* i realize that rosenthal and gammons have provided measured support as well, but i assume that is because they savor the idea of hendry hanging himself.


TWH said...

Hi Gentry, I got here by accident but as long as I'm here I might as well leave an unsolicited comment. This deal is evidence that Tribune is going to sell the Cubs. Why not rack up a big bill if you know you're not going to have to pay it?

Anonymous said...

Unfortunately, you are probably right. Cub fans will be bemoaning Soriano's contract long before it's over.

g13 said...

i'm surrounded by hughes...and that's a good thing. thanks for stopping by.

twh - i've heard that the tribune wants 1 billion for the cubs. that seems to be a rather steep price considering that the red sox sold for under 800 mil. that being said, i am sure that there is a failing company somewhere (i.e., GM, United Airlines, AOL) who will decide that the cubs perfectly mirror their company ethos.

jonathan, it's good to hear from you. anytime you pay 17 million per for someone with a lifetime OBP of .325 you're bound to regret your decision.

A boy named Toadie said...


This year of hot stove is going nuts. I know it may sound a little dumb but I am happy that the Cardinals haven't gone stupid so far. Our best acquisitions seem to come during trades and with players that other teams overlook --Ecstein, Carpenter, Weaver, Will Clark, Woody Williams, Reggie Sanders and Jeff Suppan are to name a few from recent years.

Our dumb mistakes are generally when we spend a lot of money on a chump when the market told us to buy since "everyone" was spending --Brad Looper, Tino Martinez, and Juan Encarnacion.

I like the Cardinals' strategy of late. If you look back to some decisions in the past couple of years, I think not resigning Matheny, Morris, Williams, Womack, Sanders and Vina were all good decisions. I didn't like them all at the time but they turned out be be good choices.

In defense of Hendry, I thought he made all the right moves last offseason and it almost cost him his job. Who knew they were going to have so many injuries and that the team was going to tank?

g13 said...

hey toad, as per hendry, i think his reliance on wood and prior last year is what killed him. of course, the jacque jones move was questionable as well (that's one guy i was glad the cards didn't sign).

the matthews signing reaffirms the wisdom of the jed signing. would you rather have a 37 year old jed for 2 yrs/18 mil or a 34 year old matthews for 5 yrs/50 mil? i'm going with jed there.

i think your assesment of the cards front office is correct. not signing hampton, burnett, et. al has worked out just fine for us. i'm still horrified about next year's rotation though. weave is not a number 2 starter.

A boy named Toadie said...

I'm in complete agreement with you right now about the starting rotation. If the season were to start tomorrow we would have

1. Carpenter
2. Reyes
3. Wainright
4. Brad Thompson
5. Dave Duncan or Fredbird

That's not good my friend. I still hate the thought of throwing out 10 million bucks a year on mediocrity.

g13 said...

it is horrifying. especially when you consider that duncan has talked about keeping wainright in the closer's role.

of the mid-tier starters, i think woody williams would make sense insofar as we could probably sign him to a 3/21 mil contract and he is a known quantity. moreover, if we're going to overpay for a mid-tier i would prefer for it to be a lefty like lilly.

i realize that this idea by viva el birdos is never going to happen. but i like it. i really, really like it.

did i mention that i am going under the gun to get a cardinals world series tatoo? i won't be able to pay for it until i am gainfully employed, but i'm sure that pictures will follow.

Apu said...

someone please stop theo & the trio from signing JD Drew.

the word in Boston is that Scott Boras is working a deal--if Theo signs JD Drew, then Matsusaka follows him into the fold, for a little less.

how did your peter rollins thing go? hope it went well.

Bobby K.